الاثنينية ::المكتبة

مكتبة الاثنينية

Mr. Sharawi

This is the first time in the last 15 years that Mr. Ghazi appeared to be polite.

This is a sign of old age and.

I am grateful for that.

In all my public life I objected, opposed, frustrated and used anything I have to stop planning in a small country which is rich like Bahrain.

But we are under pressure if want something to take 5 to 6 years to build.

If the rate of concrete going to increase from 12 to 15% then you have no time to think.

Mr Ghazi became Minister of industry he ran the industry very good.

He was given an electricity of 2000 mega watt.

We moved this power from the plants to the projects.

How he suggest now after the retirement to speak about the Gulf 10 to 20 years from now. This is too much a long period. How can anybody predict how can somebody estimate.

Speaking about the Knowledge and the future. The most famous story faced London about 200 years ago, The tower of London.

Somebody asked what is the maximum amount of population this town can have.

There were services and Land they were planning for the 19 century.

A brilliant Mathematician calculated that the maximum people this country can have 2 million people.

He worked out that the dung produced by the city horses require man power and the horses to remove the dung.

So he was Limiting the population as 2 million.

This was the calculation of that time under the facts available.

So going 15/20 year from now and I hope we can make some calculation.

I choose the 200/250 20 years from now for two reasons, its far away what is happening now and still the oil window will be with US. From now in 2015, doest matter the tide could move up and down but it exactly what I told what happened to US. Then.

In that period I give you two things 1 - we will be 38 million people in the peninsula we are no more than 1.8 millions Scattered in the north area that means including GCC area will be 40 millions People.

We have now 10 million foreigners I hope they remain with us.

But I doubt about that. Just we go these, let us see where we are now.

The excitement of 20 year of very speedy development and with the ages we had less oil and less money there was purpose, there was aim and determination by the rules and by the ruler to achieve.

That was shut-off I think in the 80s. Less oil less money for our oil we have to keep.

Iraq fighting so our all reserves finished Iraq occupies so we borrowed to celebrate Kuwait.

So the problem came with our developments.

2nd we started very well in 1981 with the GCC, we thought we have better reasons.

We are more near to each other the Barrel oil determined our currency so in ten year times we achieved loss.

At that time anyone can go anywhere open a shop or the business in the Gulf area and can get citizenship.

Then we realized at the last five years that things that require change are difficult to change.

It reminds me the Roman Empire.

The Roman Empire built the technology and machinery to expand and to increase their Area.

Eventually they ended either with northern west land or the desert and they stopped and suddenly the Roman Empire were by no mission.

We in the Gulf could not absorb the Shock of Kuwait.

So we Arabs could not absorb the shock and the GCC was really passing through lots of difficulties so this is what we are at the moment.

But on the other hand we have 160 billion dollar to spend.

The amount is equal to GMP about 200 million people they need. So we are still very important.

I have the great faith in the technology that the human being has produced.

I have no illusion that the other area of the world will produce oil.

The barrel in the north sea was 7 dollars is coming down to 3 dollars and even 2

I have no doubt that Iraq and Iran will come-up to take their share in oil production but in spite of all that as the head of the CIA would have the largest oil reserves in the middle East.

I think by the year 2015 we will produce in the GCC a huge amount of oil and 200 to 225 billion dollars will be available to us.

So here we have the 40 million population and the 200 billion dollars that's better.

They would asked in 70s how Arab spend their money The answer came that some spent on games some spent on alcohol.

So I don't spend my money foolishly. Let me tell you what are the importance of spending, 80% of the expenditure will be to the defense, it will go to find water, Electricity and it will be absorbed by health and education.

There will be very little money left for us to really develop We have problems I will come to this point latter why we can not get more.

Not only we have to have water but I anticipate that will be a food crises of the world. I will take a few minutes to explain what has happened.

The oil requires sixty raise on the high seas. From attack in Tanura, to attack in Noterdam, Oklahoma they are dead sixty days.

From the field to the tank there are 15 days required to produce to pump, to collect fifty days and fifteen days also to reach to the consumer 80 days you need 90 days of production to keep the oil moving and the last 40 year neither the 60 days were interrupted, because the ships are ships and 15 days in the west was Disrupted. It was really beginning from Iran 1951 all the way to Saddam in 1990. All the big shocks that happened to oil that 90 days became 80 days.

Huge fluctuation in price rate to go.

But one day time will come that the prices of food will shoot up. In the world exactly what happened to oil in 1973 and 1981.

Now How we look at things in the year 2015. The people of the gulf would like to maintain well living. Somebody provide them power and water. Jump doest matter and all those things are subsidized they are not going to ask us. As far as the money is there.

We have taken the system of capitalism based on either you save and develop or you collect and spend.

At that time there are going 500,000 boys coming out from schools, 50,000 university graduates and the rests are from the skilled colleges. But whatever we doing in our system of education of today has nothing to do with the requirement of the 25th century. We inherited the system of education from Europe in all stages. Now the west changes the requirement of world, technical knowledge changes and yet we are very frightened to change that system. The Muslims change their system of education over the ages.

Now we inherited the system from Europe but we are frightened to improve it or modify it.

Therefore I am worried about the young boys and girls of the 20th century in the gulf problem No 2 and that goes to the GCC.

In the Europe today not to the Technology or their abilities its their interest towards the business. Gormandization of the world today business open out. In Europe the 60% of the trade is in the inter states. The Far east is 40% We in the Gulf 10% We have to think within our area to really have more development if we open to each other.

The third problem will face in really investment, 1994 the world invested 160 billion dollar for the rich would 70 billion went to south east Asia. The South American took 20 to 30 billion, 20 used the Russia and the nearby Europe and in the whole Arab world 2%. Why is that why did dispute capital. This effected everybody in the Arab world.

We will come to this problem late. Third whether we going to produce 12 million barrels in a time. That will require 250 million dollars. We have to inject 25 million into the oil industry so that the world will buy our oil. Where from this money comes. UAE, Oman Bahrain and Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar also we have to borrow the money.

Are we going to get this money to make the oil move or somebody else has to do it? Do we have a system of our own? This is the question to be answered. Who is going to pay that 250 million dollars to keep the economy going.

If we allow to run the things as they are today we will have difficulties. And the problems of peninsula will move from foreign problems to our internal problems. And that will be the challenge for us in the 21st century.

I think we can survive, it is on the will of the people As we faced the problems of development in 60's and 70's. More or less we got through it and succeeded and I Think we can Succeed also in the up coming problems We have to correct our education system (Now) just now definitely and we have no time.

Already the 50% of the population of the (GCC) are educated we should spend all our energy in the peninsula. What education is required?

There is a big change in world today. Low skilled industrial evolution, lot of skilled labours and a few people are skilled sharing in the production of the world. But in the new technology of the world you need a very high skilled labour and we don't have to think and not our head thinking.

The United States today every - body was glooming a few years ago. They changed I think from basic heavy industry into their Formatted industry and they are well. The German has to learn this lesson now because they got stuck with their heavy industry. I think without any background to have a industry mathematically we should have small manufacturing but we have to act now More skill for the future for the new industry we can do it.

The second important thing that has to be done. What is in 50's done every time a boy educated abroad he come and tell his people that you are eligible government The Arab national concept was there that made the state not important. I did the little change. I think Arab nationalism will transform itself into to a feeling belonging common history and with a possibility of co-operation.

The people of gulf accepted that. I want no conflict between that Jealousy Feeling and the leadership. And since the purpose of both side is really a welfare state and well.

The representation will increase, widened and more slowly, the economic the social and Cultural problem has to be passed for the people itself. Nobody invites me rest of the gulf Any where else. Nobody disagreed with this at last. What will the Kuwait took a course Islamic concepts were accepted. Elections were very well accepted. All sort of formulas are being added to the Gulf It is one hope that this process of passing over, there is a possibility special in welfare specially social welfare, has to be passed slowly, I think to the people themselves to decide what they want. The trouble will from the bureaucracy we have to create to resist change. They have power. They are Authority in any ministry Any way think always applying and that will resist change of this.

If the political restriction is to go against it. That will absorb lots of problems. Once I said this. I think we have to go slowly to a small government.

We shall pass the Electricity, water all the facilities and even if a last country like Saudi Arabia, even a problem of education and health could dedicate to smaller Area. I think that also will come on as a part the process of passing the responsibility.

With those happening I think there are 400 to 600 billion dollars of private Arab money outside Now a casual reader nobody has faith in the economy, no-body has faith in the gulf Ladies and gentlemen.

As a public servant and as a consultant I want to explain now. In variably in every cases there was a stable, good well Studied Scheme whether a few million or 250 million, the public sector will sport. The Arab money will come back to their countries, if the system based on it, if the system would allow to come back. I think this is very important, it will reduce the huge pressure on the government for them to regenerate and produce money for themselves and the public sector will take the responsibility.

Step 4: Somewhere sometimes as soon as possible we should not allow small resistance forces to stop the integration of the GCC, why he is selling spare parts why should he control a market those are the questions I have to face. This is very important that will go to a platform which will produce tremendous opportunities for the people to works, to interact and create as they want.

I think with the courage we have done to face Iraq problem with Kuwait, that is our responsibility to be taken.

Those are the 4,5 factors which I think are taken from now Taken slowly without pain will leave the gulf to go up with the development in 20th century with the least amount of pains and responsibility, urgently view with the small, looked to happen becoming 20 year is that with the Laws of nature with the Laws of God, the Ruler of the GCC now most of them will pass. Why I say this now, after all they are not adventurous, they are in a round of a system that pulls legitimacy. It has a tradition and in many countries you have N0.1, No.2 some countries has N0.3 So why I bring succession at the note of loss I tell you why. $ or 5 Ruler were come, we are more in the tree oil era. There were more at houses that do differ from the houses of the treatment. They have no access to the hygiene or to health. Whatever education was available they got it. They maintained with their quarter What you call a common touch Nothing in there bring nothing in education. Nothing in there preparing themselves that really prepare them to the task of taking all sorts of responsibilities of the gulf in last 30 years.

One history put them that position I think they rose to the occasion All of them the 4 or 5 people are in the 60's or 70's accepted their own they were abused they put Failure they accepted all that with grace.

And when they rose the Authority to leadership, they accepted also that role based on humanity they maintained a common touch with their people.

And one only hope that the leader Ship Kept the common touch till the 3rd generation.

With those remarks Ghazi I stop here and thank you very much for listening.